{"id":129024,"date":"2026-01-16T14:46:06","date_gmt":"2026-01-16T19:46:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.justsecurity.org\/?p=129024"},"modified":"2026-01-16T15:00:18","modified_gmt":"2026-01-16T20:00:18","slug":"military-force-not-help-people-iran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.justsecurity.org\/129024\/military-force-not-help-people-iran\/","title":{"rendered":"Military Force Will Not Help the People of Iran"},"content":{"rendered":"

Once again, the United States is considering a military <\/span>attack<\/span><\/a> on Iran, this time in response to the government\u2019s violent crackdown on popular protests that swept across the country over the last several weeks. For the time being, regional allies may have convinced the Trump administration to hold back. <\/span>But while President Donald Trump seemingly accepted the Iranian government\u2019s claim that the killing has stopped <\/span>and even <\/span>thanked<\/span><\/a> Iran for not proceeding with executions of protesters, <\/span>he has not ruled out military options moving forward depending on how the situation in Iran evolves.<\/span>\u00a0The Pentagon reportedly has already prepared a range of <\/span>options<\/span><\/a>, from targeting the regime\u2019s security apparatus to striking missile sites and once again hitting Iranian nuclear facilities, which Trump had already declared \u201cobliterated\u201d after the last U.S. attack in June. That attack crossed the Rubicon in the nearly half-century long adversarial relationship between the United States and Iran, marking the first U.S. military strike on Iranian territory.<\/span><\/p>\n

Now, with the likelihood of unrest and government crackdowns continuing, the possibility of a second U.S. attack remains viable. Iran\u2019s people deserve international support as they endure what may prove to be the most brutal suppression in the history of the Islamic Republic. But the quick pivot to considering military force without serious domestic debate in the United States or clarity about what force is meant to achieve, and whether this is the best way to help the Iranian people, is alarming. The President and other senior officials have offered mixed messages on the purpose of military threats, suggesting goals ranging from the <\/span>protection of protesters<\/span><\/a>, the possibility of <\/span>regime change<\/span><\/a>, the promotion of <\/span>freedom<\/span><\/a> and democracy, striking more favorable <\/span>diplomatic deals<\/span><\/a>, and the need to <\/span>reassert U.S. credibility<\/span><\/a>. Such varied aims leave the strategic objectives of a potential strike unclear\u2014and raise the risk that military action becomes a substitute for strategy. Moreover, military tools are unlikely to achieve any of these objectives, and may only make the situation worse.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0Military Force is Unlikely to Advance U.S. Goals in Iran\u00a0 <\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n

The most urgent rationale for using military force is to protect Iranian civilians. Reports on the death toll from the current unrest vary, but even cautious <\/span>estimates suggest<\/span><\/a> casualties in the thousands. Even with the government imposing a total <\/span>internet blackout<\/span><\/a>, the reports that have emerged make it clear the leadership sees the current protests as existential and has chosen to use the full force of the state\u2019s security forces against its people. President Trump has repeatedly threatened Iranian leaders if they use force against the protesters, posting <\/span>early<\/span><\/a> in the crisis that the United States. is \u201clocked and loaded\u201d and would come to the protesters \u201crescue\u201d if the killing continued. He later <\/span>told<\/span><\/a> Iranians to \u201ckeep protesting\u201d and that \u201chelp is on the way.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

But military strikes are unlikely to prevent Iran\u2019s security forces from killing civilians. Striking the headquarters of the IRGC or other state institutions responsible for the killing may rattle the leadership. But as Israel\u2019s previous killing of top IRGC officials has demonstrated, it is difficult to dismantle an expansive security apparatus through external military intervention alone. Moreover, previous attacks only led to more repression as paranoia about external intelligence infiltration led to mass arrests and executions. In this respect, military strikes can <\/span>backfire<\/span><\/a> and lead to even more indiscriminate killing of innocent civilians.<\/span><\/p>\n

What if the objective is more expansive, aiming to not only protect protesters but to topple the regime itself? Trump\u2019s statements moved in this direction as the protests gained momentum, encouraging the Iranian people to \u201cMake Iran Great Again.\u201d Senator Lindsey Graham and other U.S. officials have even been <\/span>donning<\/span><\/a> \u2018Make Iran Great Again\u2019 hats, branding Iran\u2019s uprising as a MAGA movement. Though initially reluctant to meet former Iranian crown prince Reza Pahlavi, who has been actively encouraging protesters to overthrow the regime, senior White House envoy Steve Witkoff reportedly <\/span>met<\/span><\/a> Pahlavi last weekend. However, Trump has <\/span>questioned<\/span><\/a> Pahlavi\u2019s support inside the country, suggesting he might be seeking information about potential alternative leaders should the Islamic Republic fall.<\/span><\/p>\n

But the use of external military force to topple regimes has a poor track record historically. Without armed opposition forces on the ground, airpower alone has rarely succeeded in ousting governments. Peaceful protesters on the streets are not an army. They are not organized to take on the massive security capabilities of the Iranian state. This is not Syria, where an armed opposition had been organizing for years and exercising autonomy in parts of the country during the civil war before the surprising opportunity to advance to Damascus and overthrow Bashar al-Assad. Without defections and other signs of splintering among Iran\u2019s security forces and leadership, regime collapse is unlikely. So far, such fissures have not emerged, even after the significant military setbacks during the Israeli and American attacks in June.<\/span><\/p>\n

Another goal often linked to overthrowing the regime is the desire to see Iran transition to democratic governance, which is the aspiration for many Iranians inside and outside the country. Trump\u2019s social media postings at times refer to his support for freedom in Iran, but the actions of his second administration suggest little interest in such objectives. The Venezuela model, that some fear may be in store for Iran, demonstrated that the administration was content with a change of leadership, not a change of the regime or its repressive machinery. Even if democracy, human rights and accountability were higher priorities for this administration, research on foreign military interventions suggests they tend to bring more repression and violence than democracy. There is little reason to believe Iran would prove an exception.<\/span><\/p>\n

Another argument for military force is that it can advance diplomacy, forcing Iran\u2019s leaders to accept terms they previously refused, such as the permanent suspension of uranium enrichment within the country, which has proven a major sticking point in nuclear negotiations. However, the use of military force in June did not move the Iranians to more accommodating positions. Instead of returning to the negotiating table, Iran\u2019s leaders focused on <\/span>restoring<\/span><\/a> military capabilities, particularly missile capacity, to deter future attacks and make such attacks more costly for the United States and Israel. And in the aftermath of such unprecedented bloodshed in Iran, the political appetite for a deal in Washington is likely diminished. Military escalation tends to disrupt diplomatic processes, not encourage them, as evidenced when the June attacks <\/span>derailed<\/span><\/a> the Omani-mediated nuclear talks after five rounds of meetings.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Finally, what if the objective is a show of force to maintain credibility, allowing Trump to claim he acted on his threats without risking prolonged military engagement. Trump prefers military operations that are decisive and short, and that do not require ground troops that could risk quagmires like Afghanistan and Iraq. But just because military operations may be conceived as limited does not mean that they are without risks. Iran has already <\/span>threatened<\/span><\/a> to retaliate against U.S. bases in neighboring countries if attacked. There are also secondary impacts, including the prospect that even limited strikes lead to unanticipated escalation, spilling over the borders to neighboring states and destabilizing global oil markets. Such concerns, which are not hypothetical as we saw during the June war, explain why regional states, particularly in the Gulf, <\/span>lobbied<\/span><\/a> Trump to refrain from an attack.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

A Smarter Way to Stand with Iranians<\/b><\/h2>\n

While it is still unclear what the administration is trying to achieve in Iran, military strikes are unlikely to advance any conceivable U.S. objective. The most immediate priority should be to help the Iranian people, and there are more effective and less dangerous ways to do so than resorting to force.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

One way to support Iranian protesters is to improve their ability to communicate with each other and the outside world during internet shutdowns and ensure that reliable information about the protests is available. Internet censorship circumvention <\/span>tools like Starlink<\/span><\/a> satellite terminals are already being utilized to send videos and images of the protests out of the country, and SpaceX has allowed for free access during this emergency. But relying only on private sector companies and the discretion of its leadership can be risky, and should not replace funding for governmental and nongovernmental organizations working in the internet freedom area, funding that the Trump administration has cut and is under <\/span>pressure<\/span><\/a> to restore. Funding for NGOs that help investigate and expose AI manipulated media that can be used by the Iranian government and other external actors to <\/span>distort<\/span><\/a> the nature of the unrest is also critical to document crimes and allow for accountability in the future.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Another useful step to help Iranians who may be facing increased dangers within the country would be to reverse the current visa restrictions on Iranians who are seeking asylum in the United States and halt deportation flights of Iranians already in the country. The Trump administration <\/span>sent<\/span> two planeloads of Iranians seeking refuge in the United States back to Iran before the current protests, Iranians who were sure to face persecution upon their return. Future deportation flights at this perilous time in Iran would be particularly callous.<\/span><\/p>\n

Finally, this is a moment for a global response, not unilateral military action. The U.S. government should be activating mechanisms like the United Nations, the Human Rights Council, and trans-Atlantic forums to hold those responsible for the killing to account. This is particularly difficult as the administration has withdrawn the United States from <\/span>dozens<\/span><\/a> of international organizations that press for accountability and rule of law across the world, not to mention the dismantling of U.S. agencies and nongovernmental organizations focused on supporting civil society and democratic governance.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Ultimately, if the aim is to help the Iranian people, the best approach is to empower them to do it on their own without the complications and dangers of external military intervention. This is an Iranian uprising, and it is up to the people of Iran to decide their own future.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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